July 22, 2008

2008 NFL Predictions

As we await the start of college and pro football, here are my predictions for this season, along with some fantasy sleepers. I'll give you a projected record, quick facts, and other info for each team in the NFL. The records are based on the teams actual schedules, I'm not just making up numbers here.

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
2007 Record: 16-0 2008 Proj. Record: 15-1
The skinny: The Pats are coming off a devestating Super Bowl XLII loss, but have one of the easiest schedules this year. Their toughest games are at Seattle, Indy, and New York. Other than that, its a pretty smooth ride. Rookie LB Jerod Mayo should have an immediate impact when he gets the chance to play. The secondary will find enough fillers to make up for Asante Samuel's departure, and the Pats will make another solid run.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Jabar Gaffney; should have a bigger role with Donte Stallworth leaving in the offseason for the Cleveland Browns.

2. New York Jets
2007 Record: 4-12 2008 Proj. Record: 11-5
The skinny: New York finally found that guy at QB, his name is Brett Favre. Broadway Brett makes this offense efficient and explosive. Coles and Cotchery are two solid targets, much like Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The D took a huge hit by losing Johnathan Vilma. CB Darrelle Revis leads the secondary as he continues to develop into an All-Pro player. The sky is the limit for the Jets in 2008, due to their schedule; their toughest game outside of the division is at SD.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Jericho Cotchery, can have a breakout year with Favre at the helm.

3. Buffalo Bills
2007 Record: 6-10 2008 Proj. Record: 6-10
The skinny: Buffalo made no improvements this offseason other than aquiring DT Marcus Stroud. They just sat back and did nothing. The Bills picked CB Leodis McKelvin and WR James Hardy, but those are two players who need a few years to develop. Buffalo need a proven corner like Asante Samuel, who was a free agent. Trent Edwards showed he's ready to start, but who knows? J.P. Losman will sink this team even further if he wins the job.
Fantasy Sleepers: none

4. Miami Dolphins
2007 Record: 1-15 2008 Proj. Record: 4-12
The skinny: The Fins are taking the right steps to becoming that 10-6 team that just couldn't make the playoffs (because Dave Wannstedt was coaching) a few seasons ago. Bill Parcells has implemented the 'no bullshit' policy in Miami. QB Chad Pennington gives this team a consistent starter, but not a pro-bowl caliber player, something they need here. Ginn & Wilford can help him. RB Ronnie Brown should be okay by season's start and will produce. The defense is really young and is a learning bunch. T Jake Long is a step in the right direction, but the line is still bad.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Earnest Wilford.; if Pennington gets him the ball he can get you 6-10ppg.

AFC NORTH

1. Cleveland Browns
2007 Record: 10-6 2008 Proj. Record: 11-5
The skinny: Adding Donte Stallworth, Shaun Rogers, and Corey Williams all make this team relevant. Cleveland has a dynamic offense, along with a young, talented defense. This will translate to a playoff team. QB Derek Anderson is the piece that can get them over the hump, but his inconsistency late last season showed he might not be able to. Trading CB Leigh Bodden was a big mistake, however. He and CB Eric Wright could've been deadly by 2010.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Donte Stallworth; has a larger role than last year and can spread the field.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
2007 Record: 10-6 2008 Proj. Record: 10-6
The skinny: Pittsburgh ran into a bugaboo in the draft, being forced to take two players that are flashy and high risk, high reward players. I don't blame them, RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed can be dynamic NFL players, but the Steelers didn't address any true needs. The offensive line is in shambles, and so is their secondary. Ike Taylor is a #3 CB, not a #1. Teams that can stop Pittsburgh from blitzing all over expose their secondary weakness. Should be another up and down year in the 'Burgh, especially with the team's ownership at stake.
Fantasy Sleepers: RB Rashard Mendenhall; more poweful & consistent than Willie Parker.


3. Cincinnati Bengals
2007 Record: 7-9 2008 Proj. Record: 4-12
The skinny: This year's defense will be even worse. Cinci lost Justin Smith and Madieu Williams, maybe their two best defensive players in '07. The Bengals offense will be effective yet again, but the running game is slowly becoming irrelevant. Rudi Johnson may not have much left, and no one else can fill his void immediately. Kieth Rivers will be a stud, but can't do it by himself. Chad can talk all he wants, but it still won't help the Bungals become the Bengals again.
Fantasy Sleepers: RB Kenny Watson; 1,137 total yds in '07, 7 total TD, a productive filler.

4. Baltimore Ravens
2007 Record: 5-11 2008 Proj. Record: 2-14
The skinny: Rookie QB Joe Flacco should start opening day, unless they make a trade (for Brett Favre). This team is getting younger, and should be competitive again. With a good QB, the Ravens are always a contender. Flacco is developed for a rookie, but needs another weapon around him. The defense, led by MLB and assassin Ray Lewis, along with S Ed Reed, is still a scary one. Look for John Harbaugh to have a successful rebuilding year in Baltimore.
Fantasy Sleepers: QB Joe Flacco; who knows? He could be a solid #2 QB on your squad.

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2007 Record: 11-5 2008 Proj. Record: 13-3
The skinny: The Jags added WR's Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, giving QB David Garrard some weaponry. The run game is still phenomenal with MJD and Fred Taylor. The D lost DT Marcus Stroud, but drafted two defensive ends with their top two selections. The d-backs are still top 5 AFC, and MLB Mike Peterson controls everything. With the improved O, Jacksonville can eclipse Indianapolis for the division title this year.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Troy Williamson; reportedly having a breakout offseason.

2. Indianapolis Colts
2007 Record: 13-3 2008 Proj. Record: 12-4
The skinny: Don't worry, QB Peyton Manning will be ready, so he can still be on your fantasy team (and every dumbass commercial). This team made no improvements to its secondary, and their star MLB Gary Brackett is aging quickly. The D-line is still on of the best in the NFL, but they're not gonna cover any receivers. Niether will their corners. Shootout City will still have a good season with their dynamic offense, however. Wayne and Harrison are a cut above.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Anthony Gonzalez; 37rec, 576yds, 3td as a rookie.

3. Houston Texans
2007 Record: 8-8 2008 Proj. Record: 9-7
The skinny: That's right, the Texans will finally have their first winning season. QB Matt Schaub is one of the league's bright young stars, and has just enough talent around him to produce offensively. DE Mario Williams is a man, and the linebacking core is finally respectable with Marlon Greenwood, DeMeco Ryans, and Roosevelt Colvin. Head coach Gary Kubiak finally got it right. In subsequent years, Houston could be a playoff contender.
Fantasy Sleepers: RB Chris Brown; will Run It! effectively as the lone scatter.

4. Tennessee Titans
2007 Record: 10-6 2008 Proj. Record: 7-9
The skinny: The Titans did one good thing in the offseason, release CB Pacman Jones. Oh, excuse me, that's CB Adam Jones. Other than that, Tennessee basically rolled over and killed their 2008 playoff chances. They have a great D-line, and Kieth Bulluck, but those five players are the only ones that should be in the league. Justin Gage is currently the Titans #1 receiver. 'Nuff said. Coach Jeff Fisher leads another dismal Titan squad in 2008.
Fantasy Sleepers: none

AFC WEST

1. San Diego Chargers
2007 Record: 11-5 2008 Proj. Record: 11-5
The skinny: Norv Turner has no excuses this season. His team is insanely talented on both sides of the ball. QB Philip Rivers is an ass, but should be ready after his knee surgery. The middle linebackers are suspect, but who cares when you have Merriman and Phillips patrolling the outside. The secondary is finally young and quick enough to succeed. The Bolts have a tough schedule, though (at TB, at PIT, vs NE, vs IND, vs NO in London).
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Vincent Jackson; excelled in the '08 playoffs, due for a breakout year.

2. Denver Broncos
2007 Record: 7-9 2008 Proj. Record: 8-8
The skinny: Denver helped improve its offense with their draft picks. Unfortunately, it was their D last year that was the downfall. The Broncs were 30th in run defense last year. No changes were made to the box, so it's hard to give them better than 8-8. They were 24th in time of possession last year, making it even harder on their defense. WR Brandon Marshall is soon to be one of the best, but can ol' Vandy get him the ball?
Fantasy Sleepers: RB Selvin Young; we all know about what Denver's unknown backs can do.

3. Oakland Raiders
2007 Record: 4-12 2008 Proj. Record: 6-10
The skinny: Al Davis needs to give it up, but he actually did an o.k. job here. This Raider squad should be much improved. Their defense is still very solid with the addition of CB DeAngelo Hall. Darren McFadden and WR Javon Walker give the offense some explosiveness. Oakland lost WR Jerry Porter, but should be fine. The big question is QB JaMarcus Russell. He reportedly came in overweight and out of shape. Nice, dude.
Fantasy Sleepers: RB Justin Fargas; thrived when Oakland gave up on Lamont Jordan last year.

4. Kansas City Chiefs
2007 Record: 4-12 2008 Proj. Record: 3-13
The skinny: Except for Patrick Surtain and Donnie Edwards, this KC defense is pretty young. Their #1 choice, DT Glenn Dorsey, can be effective early in his career. Larry Johnson is still one of the best, but his o-line is a disgrace. G Brian Waters is the only respectable lineman. The d-line is looking solid, with Dorsey and Tamba Hali. Both players are under 25. QB Brodie Croyle should finally win the job over Damon Huard, but he only has sophomore Dwayne Bowe to work with. This team lost its best player, Jared Allen, in the offseason. From bad to worse.Fantasy Sleepers: None


NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
NFC EAST

1. Dallas Cowboys
2007 Record: 13-3 2008 Proj. Record: 13-3
The skinny: This team is absolutely stacked, no question about it. It doesn't matter, because QB Tony Romo will never win a Super Bowl. Write it down. I'm not an idiot, I know that the fact Jessica Simpson is in the stands doesn't effect his play. The more attention Romo gets, the worse he performs, plain and simple. The defense is loaded with talent, and so is the offense. There's one reason why they won't win it all. Tony "homo" Romo.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Patrick Crayton; ready to be the man at #2 WR.

2. Philadelphia Eagles
2007 Record: 8-8 2008 Proj. Record: 10-6
The skinny: This Eagles team has enough talent to make a run in 2008. The defense is really young and gifted. Signing CB Asante Samuel makes the secondary best in the NFL. Remember Lito Sheppard (Lito, one mo' fo the ro-o-oad!)? Yeah, he's the #3 CB this year. Brian Dawkins is still top notch, and the receiving core is getting better. If QB Donovan McNabb stays healthy, this team has a good playoff shot.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Kevin Curtis; big play ability, quietly had 1,110yds and 6td in '08.

3. New York Giants
2007 Record: 10-6 2008 Proj. Record: 9-7
The skinny: Eli's comin! Eli's comin! Eli.... Okay, they're Super Bowl champs. But let's not get too excited here. This team was a cinderella story, much like the SB XL Steelers (although Pittsburgh was a lot better). They lost 6 players (3DL) on that defense that stopped Brady and Co., including DE Michael Strahan, so that line isn't looking too great. The linebackers are okay, and the secondary is young and growing. Expect another solid year from the running game, but not the passing game. Remember, Eli had the most picks among NFC QB's last year (20).
Fantasy Sleepers: RB Ahmad Bradshaw; a great compliment to Jacobs, explosive.

4. Washington Redskins
2007 Record: 9-7 2008 Proj. Record: 6-10
The skinny: The Skins' D is pretty solid, and got better by adding Salsa DE Jason Taylor. The secondary is young, except for leader Shawn Springs. QB Jason Campbell just isn't there yet, and has to learn a brand new offense coming off an injury. Hiring Jim Zorn as head coach was a monumental mistake due to his lack of inexperience. I'm still not crazy about the wideouts, either. Washington drafted Devin Thomas (6'1'') and Malcom Kelly (6'3'') to help.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Antwaan Randle El; finally ready to produce at #2 receiver.

NFC NORTH

1. Minnesota Vikings
2007 Record: 8-8 2008 Proj. Record: 11-5
The skinny: Regardless if this team manages to pull off a miracle and land Brett Favre, current QB Tavaris Jackson is still good enough to get this team 11 wins. The core of this team is by far best in the NFC (o-line, d-line). Oh yeah, two words. All Day. Peterson was no fluke last year, and is already top 7 or so NFL, and will be a MVP contender in '08. Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian aren't too bad at wideout, and have potential. The backers are learning. Give 'em time.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Sidney Rice; he's to the point where expectations are high.

2. Green Bay Packers
2007 Record: 13-3 2008 Proj. Record: 9-7
The skinny: If Favre comes back and is stuck in Green Bay, he will start. Period. I don't care if Packers' staff says they're moving on, because Favre is too good to just sit on the bench and watch Super Bowl XLIII chances go down the drain. RB Ryan Grant is still unsigned, which is never good. The D is really good, but will be wasted if Rodgers starts. The 9-7 record is assuming Favre doesn't wind up a cheesehead. KGB and Kampan make a dynamic duo.
Fantasy Sleepers: QB Aaron Rodgers; always looks good in preseason, ready to play.

3. Detroit Lions
2007 Record: 7-9 2008 Proj. Record: 5-11
The skinny: Sorry, Jon. No 10 wins this year. Not even close, really. Kitna's one of the many reasons this team is only worth five wins. The defense is extremely young and inexperienced. The Lions face a killer schedule, also (at HOU, vs IND, vs JAX, vs TB, vs NO). Kitna, who seems to be the leader of this squad, had a 80.9 qb rating with 18td and 20int. Not the type of guy who should be saying anything. Kevin Smith will finally give this Lions bunch a running game to work with, but not right away. The wideouts are top 5 in the NFL, however.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR's Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey; totaled 140rec, 1607yds, 7td in '08.

4. Chicago Bears
2007 Record: 7-9 2008 Proj. Record: 3-13
The skinny: Not much to say here. Things are getting a lot worse for this organization. Chicago lost 6 starters from a year ago, and were lucky to re-sign sparkplug Devin Hester. Matt Forte is underrated, but still bad. QB Rex Grossman shouldn't be in the NFL (66.4rtg, 4td, 7int in '08). Kyle Orton should win the starting job, and he could actually develop to be a Trent Dilfer type of player. The front 7 is still elite, but can't be on the field 45 minutes a game. That poor defense.
Fantasy Sleepers: none

NFC SOUTH

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2007 Record: 9-7 2008 Proj. Record: 12-4
The skinny: Jon Gruden is on the hot seat, but he's gonna ice it this season. This Tampa squad has an incredibly easy schedule (at DAL, vs MIN). QB Jeff Garcia is the guy, not Brett Favre, not Luke "tears of" McCown, Josh Johnson, Chris Simms, or Brian Griese. Bringing back RB Warrick Dunn was a good move, because Earnest Graham isn't a full-time player. The receiving core is ok for now, and that defense is still solid. Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber haven't lost a step. We'll see what Cadillac Williams can do as the #3 running back.
Fantasy Sleepers: any Bucs RB (Graham, Dunn, Williams); they seem to have a good system.

2. New Orleans Saints
2007 Record: 7-9 2008 Proj. Record: 11-5
The skinny: This team is just too talented to be a piece of trash like last season. Bringing in TE Jeremy Shockey, LB Jonathan Vilma, and drafting DT Sedrick Ellis make this team a contender again. Drew Brees is still one of the best, and has a young, explosive core to work with. The secondary is still awful, mainly because of Jason David. This d-line is much improved and developed, making this defense maybe the 15th or so overall in 2008.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR David Patten; actually is the #2 wideout, should be open a lot in 2008.

3. Carolina Panthers
2007 Record: 7-9 2008 Proj. Record: 8-8
The skinny: So, Jake "Daylight come, and you've gotta" Delhomme is back, preventing David Carr from ruining this team (even though it should've been FSU standout Chris Weinke). Steve Smith is suspended the first two games, so know that fantasy owners. Ken Lucas' face should be ready by week 11, so this secondary will take a hit. As long as Steve Smith doesn't injure or kill any other defensive guys, the Panthers should be alright. That insane d-line from a few years ago is almost completely gone, same with that great o-line. Sorry, Sean's Madden09 campaign.
Fantasy Sleepers: RB Johnathan Stewart; could come up big in '08, like All Day.

4. Atlanta Falcons
2007 Record: 4-12 2008 Proj. Record: 1-15
The skinny: This team will be worst in the league this year, but they are headed in the right direction. Hiring coach Mike Smith from Jacksonville was a great move by owner Arthur Blank. He'll finish the season, at least, and knows smashmouth football (something this team needs). RB Michael Turner is a nice fit, but he'll need to wait for an offensive line to form. Atlanta's defense is really poor, the only players in their prime are DE John Abraham and S Erik Coleman.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Roddy White; Matt Ryan's only real option, should get a load of grabs.

NFC WEST


1. Seattle Seahawks
2007 Record: 10-6 2008 Proj. Record: 12-4
The skinny: Everything is in place for Seattle to have a good season. They play in a bad division, have a relatively easy schedule, and Lofa Tatupu is a beast. QB Matt Hasselbeck is the most underrated quarterback in the NFL, and doesn't have a great receiving core. RB Julius Jones provides the 'Hawks a back who can give a solid consistent performance, unlike Alexander. The defense is also underrated, and will be one of the best this year.
Fantasy Sleepers: FB/TE Leonard Weaver; role is getting bigger as he progresses.


2. St. Louis Rams
2007 Record: 3-13 2008 Proj. Record: 8-8 (3-3div., 5-7nfc)
The skinny: Okay, so Bulger's back. No more Gus Ferrotte. Thank god. Trent Green is back as a Ram, providing Bulger relief if he goes down again. RB Steven Jackson is still a holdout, but he'll come around (like 95% of holdout players). The d-line is up there with the best, drafting DE Chris Long, who will be an immediate force in the league. Tye Hill and Fakhir Brown are two solid cover corners who are only getting better. WR Drew Bennett should be able to replace Ike.
Fantasy Sleepers: QB Marc Bulger; back and should return to normal fantasy production.


2. Arizona Cardinals
2007 Record: 8-8 2008 Proj. Record: 8-8 (3-3div., 5-7nfc)
The skinny: Warner or Leinart? It should be Warner. He had an 89.8 qb rating with 3,417yds, 27td, and 17int. He's still productive. RB Edgerrin James is getting old, but he can hang on for 2+ seasons. Fitzgerald and Boldin are the nastiest duo in the NFC. The entire defense is pretty young, but they're solid (remember, they beat Pittsburgh 21-14 last year, convincingly).
Fantasy Sleepers: QB Kurt Warner; if he starts, he'll have a quality fantasy season.


4. San Francisco 49ers
2007 Record: 5-11 2008 Proj. Record: 5-11
The skinny: Oh, where to begin. I've got a message for Mike Nolan and staff: Go get a veteran quarterback! Trent Green would've been a great fit, but instead they rely on Shaun Hill and J.T. O'Sullivan. RB Frank Gore needs to get back on track, along with TE Vernon Davis. The defense is too inexperienced right now to compete in this league (no offense, Patrick Willis). If Alex Smith steps up and makes something of his #1 pick, maybe San Fran could be .500-ish.
Fantasy Sleepers: WR Isaac Bruce; the only receiver down there, still can play with the best.


QUICK EXPLANATIONS
-Pats lose to Jets in week 12
-Steelers and Browns split season series
-Jaguars and Colts split season series
-Bucs beat Seahawks in week 7 to win tie-break
-Eagles have better NFC record to win tie-break over Packers
-all predictions assuming if season started today (no Favre)


PLAYOFF STANDINGS
AFC
1. New England Patriots, 15-1 (bye)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-3 (bye)
3. Cleveland Browns, 12-4
4. San Diego Chargers, 11-5
5. Indianapolis Colts, 12-4 (wc)
6. New York Jets, 11-5 (wc)
- Did Not Qualify -
7. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6
8. Houston Texans, 9-7

NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys, 13-3 (bye)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 12-4 (bye)
3. Seattle Seahawks, 12-4
4. Minnesota Vikings, 11-5
5. New Orleans Saints, 11-5 (wc)
6. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-6 (wc)
- Did Not Qualify -
7. Green Bay Packers, 9-7
8. New York Giants, 9-7


PLAYOFF RESULTS
Wildcard Round - AFC
Jets 27, Browns 21
Colts 38, Chargers 24
Wildcard Round - NFC
Eagles 28, Seahawks 16
Saints 34, Vikings 31 (OT)


Divisional Round - AFC
Patriots 34, Jets 18
Colts 28, Jaguars 26
Divisional Round - NFC
Eagles 17, Cowboys 13
Saints 41, Buccaneers 25


Championship Game - AFC
Patriots 20, Colts 14
Championship Game - NFC
Saints 39, Eagles 33


SUPER BOWL XLIII
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa Bay, FL)
New England Patriots 30, New Orleans Saints 27
Super Bowl MVP: CB Fernando Bryant (GW INT in 4th)


AWARD WINNERS
Coach of the Year - Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles
Runner Up - Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints


Offensive Rookie of the Year - Johnathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
Runners Up - Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions; Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers


Defensive Rookie of the Year - Chris Long, DE, St. Louis Rams
Runners Up - Jerod Mayo, LB, New England Patriots; Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers


MVP - Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Runners Up - Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots; Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles


Defensive Player of the Year - Patrick Kerney, Seattle Seahawks
Runners Up - Patrick Willis, LB, San Francisco 49ers; Rashean Mathis, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars


Offensive Player of the Year - Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Runners Up - Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings; Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots


Comeback Player of the Year - Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams
Runners Up - Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers; Warrick Dunn, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs




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