January 18, 2008

Rockies Ink Great Deal, Sign Holliday

Colorado Rockies' left-fielder Matt Holiday signed a 2-year, $23 million contract today to avoid an arbitration hearing. This gives the Rockies a legit shot of reaching the World Series again for the next two years (lost to the Red Sox in World Series in 2007). This is the smartest $11.5 any team could invest in any player for a 2-year period. Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $275 million contract in December ($27.5 million/year), but is Holliday really worth $16 million/year less than A-Rod?

While A-Rod was the obvious choice for AL MVP this past season, Holliday was arguably the NL MVP (I thought he deserved it), barely being edged by Jimmy Rollins of the Philadelphia Philles (who would be swept by the Rockies in the playoffs, 3-0). In the 2007 playoffs, Holliday went 13-45 for a .289 average with 5 homeruns and 10 runs batted in in 11 games, leading the Rockies to the World Series; while A-Rod, a notorious choker in the playoffs, went 4-15 for a .267 average with 1 homerun and 1 run batted in in 4 games, while the Yankees lost to the Indians in the first round.

(bold indicates player won head-to-head match-up in stat category)

Here are Alex Rodriguez's average stats over the past two seasons for you:
156 games played, 128 runs scored, 175 hits, 338 total bases, 29 doubles, 1 triple, 45 homeruns, 139 runs batted in, 93 walks, 130 strikeouts, 20 stolen bases, .302 batting average, .407 on-base %, .584 slugging %, .991 on-base + slugging.

As for fielding:
13 errors, 370 total chances, .965 fielding %

Fielding (compared to 25 third basemen in the MLB who played in at least 100 games):
(T 13-15) errors, (9) total chances, (9) fielding %

Those are pretty extraordinary numbers, but let's see how Matt Holliday's compare:
157 games played, 120 runs scored, 206 hits, 370 total bases, 48 doubles, 6 triples, 35 homeruns, 126 runs batted in, 55 walks, 118 strikeouts, 11 stolen bases, .333 batting average, .396 on-base %, .597 slugging %, .993 on-base + slugging.

As for fielding:
3 errors, 306 total chances, .990 fielding %

Fielding (compared to 72 outfielders in the MLB who played in at least 100 games)
(T 16-34) errors, (28) total chances, (T 19-24) fielding %

*Although slightly inaccurate, I will divide the number of Matt Holliday's ranks by three to make the sample size nearly the same (25-third basemen, 24-outfielders)

Fielding (compared to 24* outfielders in the MLB who played in at least 100 games)
(T 5.3-11.3) errors, (9.3) total chances, (T 6.3-8) fielding %

You can make the decision for yourself, but when I look at these stats, it seems as though Holliday should be making as much money as A-Rod, or vice versa. But there are some intangibles that affect a contract.

1. Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers in 2000 when he was arguably the best player in the MLB; and since he is still arguably the best player in the MLB, he can't make less than his original $25.2 million per year, that would just make no sense.

2. The New York Yankees are the most historic franchise in MLB history (arguably the Red Sox), and they wanted  A-Rod, and they were willing to spend as much as necessary to sign him after he opted out of his contract this off-season. And with the Yankees new stadium opening in 2009, the new Steinbrenner wants A-Rod to play in the "House That Jeter Built" for the rest of his career.

3. If you ask your everyday baseball fan: "Who would you rather see? Matt Holliday or Alex Rodriguez?" He or she is going to obviously say A-Rod. This is why Rodriguez is worth every cent; he brings people to the ballpark. Even when New York is on the road, the Yankees get a shared revenue from the game (same with all teams). And people are more likely to buy an A-Rod jersey, rather than a Holliday one (the Yankees also get part of all merchandise sales).

So from a baseball standpoint, only factoring in the way each player performs on the field, one may even say Matt Holliday deserves more money than A-Rod (oh yeah, Holliday - 27 years old, Rodriguez - 32 years old). But for now, I am sure each player is happy with their contracts, and each is getting ready for another run at a Word Series title.

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